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RIP - Flagstaff, AZ Home Supply Chart

After some thinking I've decided that I'm not going to maintain the Flagstaff, AZ Home Supply Chart any longer. I've been diligently punching in numbers from the MLS and zillow for a long time now and I don't want to do it any more. My interest in housing bubbles and economics in general has waned and I'm not going to spend any more of my time watching home prices. Life is just too damned short to be worrying about some jackass asking too much for his crappy three-bedroom ranch house in ponderosa trails.

If you want to download the spreadsheet and keep it going yourself then you can download it here. It's in Excel 2007 format. I never had much luck converting it to Apple's Numbers, OpenOffice, or anything but Microsoft's Office formats.

To update the data all you have to do is head over to www.northernarizonamls.com every week or so and do three "Flagstaff" property searches: one for single family + townhouse + condo, one for mobile + manufactured, and one with everything selected. The zindex data for Flagstaff can be found here.

My advice for those trying to time the market using charts like this is: Don't Bother. If you need or want a home and you have the money then buy one. If you don't then rent. It's a pretty simple choice. If you can, skip the realtors and their high commissions, lies, and conflicts of interest. Instead, look at the FSBOs, talk with the owner, and work out a deal. You know, kind of like the old days before middlemen and hucksters convinced everyone that we couldn't do business without them.

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 10/2009

Here's the October 2009 Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart (click for larger version):

If you're wondering why it looks a little different it's because I had to reformat the chart when I switched from using Office 2008 Excel on the Mac back to Excel 2007 on the PC.

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 9/2009

Well, here it is September already and judging by the jump in traffic coming to the housing bubble category on the blog it must be time for the supply chart! So, without further ado I give you the Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for the first of September (click for larger non-blurry version):

As predicted last month, supply appears to have peaked for this cycle. Zillow hasn't been updating their price index for the past couple of weeks so the Zestimate is flat at $277K. I hope they haven't decided to stop publishing the estimate for Flagstaff...

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 8/2009

Here's the Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for the first of August 2009 (click for slightly larger non-blurry version):

I'm gonna step out on a limb here and predict that we've seen the peak in supply for this year.

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 7/2009

Here it is (click for larger, non-blurry version):

The Zestimate index bounced a bit near the end of the month. Was last month the bottom in Flagstaff housing? Should we all rush right out and buy two or three foreclosed condos? Party-time, excellent? Does anyone even care anymore?

Mozilo? Fraud? Say it isn't so!

From CNN:

Maybe it's my housing bubble schadenfreude showing through, but seeing the above on CNN.com made me smile a little.

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 6/2009

Here's the Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for the beginning of June, 2009 (click for bigger version):

Prices appear to be stabilizing a little and just like in years past supply is shooting up. If things work like they have been then we should see supply peak around mid July. What'll be interesting to see is if supply exceeds the 2008 high.

The price-to-supply ratio is a little healthier but nothing to get excited about. Shouldn't we be seeing a bounce in price as sellers try to price-in the Obama tax incentive? Perhaps that's what's slowing down the slide in the Zillow index? Without the tax incentive maybe we'd be even lower by now.

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 5/2009

Here it is, guys (click for larger version):

As with last month the relationship between price and supply is not a healthy one: Supply up, Price down. The zillow index for Flag took a nasty 3% jag down right at the end of the month. This is absolutely a sign of the lower-end of the market selling while higher priced homes sit relatively stagnant. In other words, the sales on the low-end are dragging the median selling price down. This condition will put pressure on the higher-priced homes and eventually lead to a "bounce" in the median selling price as a few of these higher priced homes sell.

When we see that bounce in the chart it's probably not going to mean a bottom in the Flagstaff housing market and party time for real estate. Instead, it'll mean that a slew of constipated home sellers "blinked" and settled for a price low enough to finally attract a buyer. Unless you're in the market for a lower-end home, i.e. mobile homes, small stick-builts, etc, then now is probably not a very good time to buy. You could easily see your down payment evaporate away to nothing.

Until next month!

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 4/2009

Here's the Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for the first of April, 2009 (click for bigger version):

There is nothing about this chart that makes me think a bottom in home prices is anywhere in sight. If anything, the price drops are accelerating as the economy worsens. The price-down/supply-up relationship we've been in for the past few months is not the sign of a healthy market.

If things don't ease up soon I'm gonna have to adjust the price scale downwards again.

Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 3/2009

Once again it's time for the Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart (click for larger version):

As with last month, the relationship's between supply and price are not healthy: Supply up, price down. Careful observers will note that I had to adjust the price scale down by $10,000 to accommodate the new lows. Prices are coming down but I don't think the bottom is in. Probably not by a long shot.

Let's see how things look next month.