Flagstaff, AZ home supply chart for 7/2009

Here it is (click for larger, non-blurry version):

The Zestimate index bounced a bit near the end of the month. Was last month the bottom in Flagstaff housing? Should we all rush right out and buy two or three foreclosed condos? Party-time, excellent? Does anyone even care anymore?

Comments

[PervySage]

Del,

We sure do care, and no its not the bottom. No way.
I've been browsing a lot of craigslist RE, and IMHO,
we are still in delusion. I think we have a long way
to go, and that it wont be a crash, but a grinding down,
over 5-10 years.

Please, keep it up.

Best, PervySage

[del]

Heh heh - I suspect that you're right. Once the pent up demand from former priced-out renters and investors that didn't learn the lesson the first time is exhausted prices will start back down again. As for last month, my guess is that a handful of higher-priced homes sold and pushed the median selling price up. The "bounce" is a chimera. But time will tell, I guess.

[PervySage]

Hi Del,

We live in NM. We have friends with friends who do repo fix up in Phnx. They report doing repo fix it on same house 2-3 times already. Talk about a falling knife. BTW, you ever check out RP4409 down in the valley? Those guys are pretty funny...

PervySage

[Carrie]

If only prices would fall faster! We will never be able to buy a house because we live on one income and unlike our parents' generation, it takes two incomes to buy a house these days unless the one working is making a LOT of money. Honestly, I wouldn't even think of buying a house in this economy anyway.....how can anyone think they will be able to keep their jobs for the thirty years it takes to pay off the mortgage? The layoffs and firings going on right now are so prevalent it just makes no sense to buy anything long term. Maybe that's one reason people aren't buying and a good reason to think the bottom hasn't hit yet.

[Carrie]

By the way, THANK YOU for always posting the Flagstaff Az Home supply and price chart!

[del]

Carrie - thanks for your comments. You and I are in sort of the same boat. I'd like to buy but the prices went so high that even with the recent drops it's just not realistic. Plus, as you said, the employment situation is just too damned scary. I've got a "bomb shelter" sort of job and even *it's* getting kind of dicey!

I think you're spot-on saying that the bottom isn't in for precisely those reasons. The more I look at it the more I think this is a classic "sucker's rally" and before long, once the enthusiasm wears off, the prices will start back down. I think PervySage is correct in predicting that we're in for 5-10 years of this.

Still, this renting thing is gettin' mighty old!